Your New Charlotte Bobcats – What To Expect?

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Each season since the birth of the team there are certain
rituals I go through to prepare myself for the coming battles the club is
likely to face. Like everyone else that considers him or her self a hard-core
Bobcats fan I study the "event" days of the off-season - the draft, the
lottery, free agency decisions – and look at the potential
improvements/disasters that occur with an eye towards the problems of the
previous season and how the changes will impact our needs. But I don't stop
there. The last thing I do is look at what, for the Charlotte Bobcats, is often
their hidden nemesis – the NBA season schedule. Why? Because the Powers That Be
in the NBA seem to really enjoy transforming uphill battles into massive
mountains for this young team. The Cats are always near the top when it comes
to things like home/away back to backs and the other little nightmares that
make an already grueling sport even more difficult. During last season, the
Bobcats schedule was so punishing because of the truncated period before the
playoffs caused by the lockout that it became a clear contributor in the
heart-and-record breaking team collapse. So what lies ahead for our Beloved
Bobbies? Let's take a look...

A couple of years ago the Bobcats were on the cusp of being
embraced by the Greater Charlotte community. The playoffs were a reality and
the team had won some impressive games in which they were clearly outmatched.
They played hard each night and opponents no longer looked at a road trip into
Time Warner Cable Arena as an "Easy W." But there were problems. First and
foremost, majority owner Michael Jordan was never one to settle for the word
"mediocrity" as a valid goal when it comes to quality. The mere presence of the
word in descriptions of his baseball skills was enough to drive him out of that
sport quicker than a Dale Earnhardt Jr. fan escaping from a Jeff Gordon pep
rally. The Bobcats were burdened by some of the worst contracts in NBA history
and they were strangling the team's efforts to improve. Faced with a minimum of
3 to 5 seasons of mediocre performance before the tangled mess of the salary
cap could even begin to ease enough to give the Bobcats some breathing room was
unacceptable for Jordan. Finishing solidly in the middle of the NBA pack each
season virtually guaranteed that the team would be unable to improve through
the draft without luck on par with winning the Powerball drawing 4 weeks in a
row. True, Jordan could have ignored the luxury tax penalty and simply purchased
the best roster in the league, but the Free Agency code under the then-current
League Collective Bargaining Agreement had been cracked by the players and the
top-tier players were exploiting things to great advantage. That particular
tail had begun wagging the dog.

With most of the traditional avenues for improving his team
blocked off, Jordan made decisions that completely alienated the casual fan
base the team had so carefully built up. The only players he had that would be
attractive assets to other teams in the league were also the most beloved local
heroes. You all know what happened next. The team was dismantled and players
that had come to feel like family members were dispatched to all points of the
compass. For a myriad of reasons, the remaining misfits and career vagabonds
that made up last season's roster became the laughing stock of the NBA. The
brightest spot of the season wound up being the continued success of the
Ladycats dance squad. The team itself only succeeded at making the performance
of the French Army in Word War II look like global conquest.

I didn't realize how hard last season truly was on the fans
until recently. I have always tried to be an honest man. I would like to offer
a sincere thanks to any and all reading this piece. Trade Street Post hasn't
really been there for you lately. I take much of the blame for that myself, but
I want to let you peek behind the scenes for a moment – no excuses, no
finessing. Over the past several days I came to realize that in some ways it's
a miracle that TSP even exists anymore. I think it's safe to say that Andrew
and I are among the more faithful and devoted fans of the Charlotte Bobcats.
Our staff of writers ranks right up there as well. As with any devotee, real
life can slam the brakes on things from time to time. Just on my end of things
for example, I've had to deal with my permanent spinal issues and life as a
partial paraplegic. Many of you know this about me. Yet, I've still managed to
be able to write – sometimes here at TSP, more often in other areas. In April I
had my first and (hopefully) only major heart attack. It didn't kill me,
although it sure did try. Two months ago I went for the first round of
follow-up appointments. There it was discovered that one of my lungs was being
crushed by a massive amount of fluid in the cavity around it. For the more
medically aware, my pleural cavity had almost a gallon of fluid, crushing the
lung completely and limiting my diaphragm to less than 25% function. This too,
wanted to send me for the long-term dirt nap. While undergoing treatment, my
wife developed viral meningitis from a medical treatment. If you read the news,
you may have heard about it because she's not the only one. Several days in a
coma later, she came back to me. During her time "away" she had some pretty
amazing experiences of a spiritual nature, but this isn't the forum for such
things. It's been a busy time. But for most of it, had I wanted to write I
could have. It's often been a cathartic experience for me. For some reason
though, I just couldn't seem to fill up the blank page. I tried many times, but
nothing would come.

Then, earlier this week I got an email from one of our
writers. TSP is comprised of friends first, bloggers second, and we do keep in
touch with one another. Life had filled up for this person as well and he was
apologizing for not contributing. He confessed to a case of writer's block that
still showed no signs of abating. I replied, as did Andrew. Oddly enough,
Andrew wrote of his own battle against the dreaded disease of wordsmiths and
owned up to looking for ways to avoid staring at the blank page. (That's not
even close to paraphrasing, but he
did speak of the struggle. We all came to realize that the source of the
problem was the crushing nature of last season. There are only so many
different ways to say, "It's a rebuilding year and things will eventually get
better." After that, a Bobcats blogger is left with little more than the
reality of "this team is historically crappy." I thought I had been the only
one using "the real world" as a cover for my own inability to write much about
the Cats. Andrew and I spoke a bit about this (although he'll be reading my own
confession for the first time right here along with y'all) and have started
looking for some new writers. So if you are interested, let us know and you
could very well become our newest TSP blogger. Anyone is welcome, but we do
have one idea for a new feature if we find the right person. However, I do want
to tell you that TSP isn't going anywhere and, as is usually the case, once
Andrew and I renewed communication and resumed brainstorming about the state of
the team, our excitement was restored and our enthusiasm came back as quickly
as a runaway train. Look for a lot more activity here in the coming days!

Anyway, back to the real subject at hand. This coming season
is, like the last, unique in the history of our team. Moves made by Jordan and
Rick Cho have improved the team immeasurably. I mean that literally. No one can
say yet just how long it will take for our rookies to hit their stride. None of
us know just how good they'll be when that happens either. MKG for example,
could be the next Alonzo Mourning or the next Desagna Diop. The variable spread
is that broad – although to be fair, thus far he looks more like the former
than the latter. In fact, he's starting to look a bit like a rookie of the year
candidate. But we can't count on that this early in the scheme of things. We
know a lot more about some of the journeyman veterans that will be suiting up
on opening night. They should improve the team quite a bit all by themselves. But
if you want a real example of what the 2012-2013 will be like a good place to
look might be last season's Cleveland Cavaliers. Unlike the Bobcats, the Cavs
implosion was unplanned. But nonetheless, they are only one season further down
the road on their rebuild than the Charlotte Bobcats. Last season the final
record of the Cavaliers resulted in a net gain of +2 wins compared to the
previous record. That's not a pretty picture. If the Cats improve at that same
pace it would mean the team will end up with 9 wins, but I'm telling you right
now that won't happen.

There are a few things that the national pundits
conveniently forget to mention when they laugh up their journalistic sleeves
about the Bobcats "worst-ever" NBA record. For example, last season the team
played 66 games instead of the standard 82 because of the lockout. Would the
additional 16 games have really made that big a difference? Well, it's certainly
within reason to say that the Bobcats would have won enough games to avoid the
distinction of the least wins in league history. I have to admit, that record
of infamy hurt a lot more than I thought it would. I can only imagine the
impact it had on the players themselves – even those no longer with the team. Even
with the asterisk of a shortened
schedule, a season with single-digit victories is a monster demoralizer for
professionals who accept nothing short of excellence. Don't expect a repeat of
that either.

So what can we
expect? Well, we know they'll be better. But will that mean the team will lose
by less than 10 points per night instead of the 20-point or more deficits that
were so common a year ago? Well yeah, against the upper-tier teams that's probably
exactly what it means. Let's be real. But I think we'll also be stealing some
games against the "slightly better" teams around the league and it means
there's a better chance that the Cats will take advantage of teams weathering
injuries. There are also some teams that look like they'll be potential
pushovers for a young and healthy Bobcats squad with something to prove
collectively and as individuals. One
thing is certain, Michael Jordan and Rick Cho will have very little patience
for players they feel aren't living up to potential regardless of age and
experience.

The few articles and evaluations I've seen to date
"generously" predict somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 wins for the fighting
felines this season. That seems painfully reasonable at first glance. But with
the exception of the performance of the decimated Bobcats ranks last season,
the team has always exceeded predictions and expectations. I expect 20 wins
will be a bit conservative, based on the schedule. Of course, there are always
variables. Injuries don't just happen to the other guys. They were an important
factor when considering what happened to the team last season. Many a game the
team was barely able to find 8 players healthy enough to suit up at all, let
alone soak up court minutes. Solely by examining the way the schedule plays out
for the team I've noticed several things that I think fans should be aware of.

The Charlotte Bobcats have at least 19 back-to-backs this
season. Four of those are in November alone, including a home/away to open the
season and an away/home the following weekend. The first half of the season in
particular will be nasty all the way around for the team and wins will be
hard-fought and rare in the first 30 games. But don't get discouraged.

The final weeks of the season are every bit as nasty in
terms of game scheduling, but the competition is significantly less powerful on
paper than what the Cats will see in the opening weeks. Again, barring key
injuries, the Bobcats should pick up some wins in clusters as the season winds
down. Based on the schedule alone (brutal to the squad as always) I see the
Bobcats winning 28 games this season, give or take. I've made this sort of
prediction a number of times except for last season and I've been within 2 wins
3 of 4 times – not a bad record. It won't send the team to the playoffs, but I
don't think anyone really anticipates a playoff team for at least another
season or so.

There are two critical seasons for any team going through
the reconstructive process. The first is the one the Bobcats have sitting in
front of them right now. They've had their high first round pick and now have
an almost entirely new team with a new coach. They've shed a lot of years off
of their average age and shed more than a few of their more loathsome contracts
with more to come – AND they did it without burning up their amnesty card. This
season is critical because it will reveal how wisely the decision makers have
been in creating a solid foundation for the future. Was it wise to let Augustin
go in favor of yet another smallish point guard? We've done that before with
mixed results (Raymond Felton) and Deej had come a long way when it comes to
seeing/running the floor well and setting up the offense. Will MKG live up to
his potential? Will he pick up some polish on his questionable skills at the
offensive end? If these decisions made by the front office work out reasonably
well, the team is well on the way. If things go the way they did for the Cavs
at this juncture of things for example, the rebuild may well be a fast bust
requiring a do-over. If that does happen, you can feel pretty certain that
there will be a lot of articles showing up about the team heading for greener
pastures as Seattle finally caves in to Stern's demands and builds a state of
the art arena to lure a new team to the Sonics old stomping grounds.

The second critical season, in case some were wondering, is
still a little ways down the road. That will be when the team improves enough
to leave the fertile recruiting grounds of the NBA Draft Lottery behind and
make a run into the actual post-season. Much of the next 5 to 7 seasons of a
rebuilt teams future is finalized in that first run into the playoffs with the
still young and hungry team of players just nearing their individual peaks as
professionals.

Nonetheless, I personally promise that the season in front
of us will be far more exciting and entertaining than the one in the rear-view
mirror and not just because it would be almost impossible for it to be worse. I
think that the decisions made by the Bobcats front office were, for the most
part, extremely wise. They timed their top 4 lottery pick perfectly since a lot
of qualified players didn't make themselves eligible a year earlier when the
league was facing an almost certain lockout. That made the draft this season
nice and deep, with players available in the second round that normally would
have been gone late in the first. The potential is certainly there for the
Bobcats to show us some surprises this season and they should be much improved.
I don't think we can (or should) realistically make a playoff run just yet, but
I believe we'll be just as good and potentially enjoyable to watch as say, the
Indiana Pacers or Milwaukee Bucks were in their "just miss getting seeded"
seasons of a few years ago. There will be a lot less blowouts and a lot more
nail-biting finishes. Yes, that means a lot of frustrating losses where the
team will just miss stealing
the win. That comes with youth and inexperience. There will be a lot of games
lost because of turnovers and busted plays as well. That too comes with youth, speed, and inexperience. The front office may
have their "Tougher, blah blah blah" slogan for the team, but I have my own.
For me, this Bobcats season is the "Growing Pains" season. I can live with that
because along with the frustrating close-score losses will come a few of the
"holy cow I can't BELIEVE they beat the (insert top level team like Miami or
Boston here) victories. My excitement for the team is renewed, my faith in the
front office never truly disappeared (In MJ I Still Trust) and, as you can clearly see, my writer's block had
been done busted. It looks to be an exciting season and we'll be here to cover
it all. If you would like to be a part of the staff here, just let us know and
soon you too could be part of the new intensity down on Trade Street.