Roster Analysis - Part 1
Roster Analysis: Part 1
Now that the Bobcats have been officially eliminated from playoff contention, it's time to start looking forward to how we should shape the roster for next year. While all of us at TSP will have plenty of analysis coming up on who the Cats should draft and target in free agency, the first step will be evaluating the 15 players currently on the roster and the odds of each of those players being on the roster when the season opens in late October. This will be a 3 part article, with each piece focusing on a set of 5 players. The first group will be referred to as "We're Stuck With Them!"
1) DeSagana Diop
Odds of Being on the Roster Next Year: 95%
Why He Will be Here: Diop has 2 years and $14.3 million left on his contract, with the second year a player option that he is almost certain to exercise. Considering he has averaged roughly 2 points and 2 rebounds a game over the last 2 years, it is unlikely the Cats will be getting overwhelmed with trade offers from teams wanting to pay Diop $7 million per season. To make matters worse, he tore his Achilles tendon this season and likely won't be able to play until around Christmas this upcoming season. Easily the safest bet to still be a Bobcat next season.
Why I Could be Wrong: As I hinted at above, no one is trading for Diop. The only chance of him not being in Charlotte next season is related to a possible provision of the upcoming CBA. When the last CBA was settled, there was a provision allowing each team to wipe one contract off their books with no penalty. If that is negotiated again, I would guess Diop is history. Outside of that, he will be here.
2) Matt Carroll
Odds of Being on the Roster Next Year: 95%
Why He Will be Here: Like Diop, Carroll has 2 years left on his deal with the second year being a player option. The numbers are a little more manageable for Carroll, who will get $3.9 million next year and $3.5 million the following year. And while Carroll can play a contributing role off the bench and his contract isn't an albatross, he still is overpaid and not desired by anyone else.
Why I Could be Wrong: The only chance of dumping Carroll this summer is to pair him in a trade to dump salary. I think the chances of that happening are pretty slim because we don't have many assets to pair him with and the ones we do have are probably off limits. Get used to seeing Matt in a Cats uniform for a few more years.
3) Stephen Jackson
Odds of Being on the Roster Next Year: 90%
Why He Will be Here: While Jack is still capable of scoring in bunches and carrying teams offensively for stretches, he also comes with baggage. He just turned 33 and his body has lots of miles on it. And in case you haven't heard, he can sometimes be a hothead and could be considered high maintenance to deal with. Having said that, Jack is owed $19.3 million over the next 2 years and that isn't a bad deal given his production. And even if the Cats are going to get younger and try to build through the draft, it doesn't hurt to keep one veteran leader around to teach the young guys how to be pros. By all accounts, Jack is the undoubted leader of this team and keeping him around to groom the other guys isn't a bad idea.
Why I Could be Wrong: There is an outside chance another team could feel like they're one veteran player away from making a deep run and come begging for Jack. I think that's fairly unlikely, especially after the financial landscape cheapens in the upcoming CBA. The only other way he isn't here next year is if he gets frustrated with the team's direction and demands a trade. If that happens, it certainly wouldn't be the first time. Personally, I don't think it's that likely this year though.
4) Eduardo Najera
Odds of Being on the Roster Next Year: 90%
Why He Will be Here: Let's be honest here. Eddie turns 35 this summer and his best days are long past him. His role has basically diminished to team "gnat" and gets most of his time when injuries run rampant and we need someone to irritate an opposing team's interior players. I cannot imagine anyone trading for him.
Why I Could be Wrong: Like Carroll, the only chance of dumping his contract is to pair him with another asset. The fact that Najera will be on a $2.6 million expiring contract makes this slightly more plausible but it's unlikely.
5) Boris Diaw
Odds of Being on the Roster Next Year: 75%
Why He Will be Here: There is no greater enigma than Boris Diaw. He is a highly skilled player who plays with a numbing lack of desire most of the time. His general nonchalance, along with his ballooning waistband, doesn't make him extremely attractive to other teams. He also commands a hefty $9 million price tag to boot. And this also seems like the appropriate time to mention that I think virtually all players locked into deals for next year will probably still be around next year. The reason: there will be a lockout this summer and it could be a nasty one. There will likely be a very small window for free agent signings and trades so movement will be limited, especially if the lockout drags into the season.
Why I Could be Wrong: As frustrating as it is to watch Diaw's lack of passion for anything (other than food of course), he is an extremely skilled and productive player. Power forwards who can handle and shoot like a guard, while being able to score on the post and defend players at multiple positions do not grow on trees. He is one of the most unique players I have ever seen. Therefore, there is definitely a market for him and his expiring $9 million deal. Boris is the most likely of these players to be dealt this summer.
Coming Up in Part 2: I'll take a look at the next segment of players, "The Expirings."
